CS2 Case Opening Odds: The Real Math Behind Drops

The Official Drop Rates

Valve publishes drop chances for every CS2 case. Here are the real numbers:

• Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92%
• Restricted (Purple): 15.98%
• Classified (Pink): 3.20%
• Covert (Red): 0.64%
• Exceedingly Rare (Knife/Gloves): 0.26%

StatTrak Multiplier

Every drop has roughly a 1-in-10 chance of being StatTrak, which typically multiplies the skin's value by 1.5x to 3x.

Expected Value of Opening Cases

On average, opening a case returns about 30-50% of the key cost in skin value. Cases are entertainment, not investment vehicles.